Last week, O&G’s Tampa team had the opportunity to attend the 2026 Tampa Bay Business Journal Economic Outlook. An event designed to give Tampa Bay’s business community a clearer view of where the economy has been, where it stands today, and what may be ahead in 2026.
The room was filled with decision-makers from across the region, representing a wide mix of industries, including:
- Financial services
- Real estate
- Construction
- Healthcare
- Manufacturing
- Nonprofits
The morning featured thoughtful presentations along with valuable conversations over coffee and pastries, showing how closely local leaders are watching the year ahead.
After opening remarks, including insights from Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, the program shifted to economic outlook presentations focused on how global, national, and regional trends are expected to impact Tampa Bay businesses.
Here are a few of the takeaways that stood out most:
Transaction Activity Has Slowed, but Momentum Could Return
Transaction activity is at a 15-year low and has softened across multiple asset classes. Economists emphasized that 2026 could be a turning point, as stabilizing interest rates and growing market confidence may unlock pent-up activity.
For businesses, this is a chance to prepare, whether that means planning for acquisitions, capital investments, or expansion once activity rebounds.
Interest Rates Are Stabilizing
Interest rates peaked in 2023–2024 and have been gradually declining through late 2025. Forecasts suggest rates may settle in the 3%–3.25% range in 2026.
This stability could make long-term financing decisions more predictable and ease pressure on sectors that rely heavily on borrowing.
Inflation, Liquidity, and Borrowing Costs Still Matter
Even with rate relief coming, inflation trends, money supply changes, and federal fund rate behavior remain important. Past stimulus-driven liquidity spikes and persistent inflation have reshaped asset values and borrowing costs. Businesses will need to keep these dynamics in mind when planning for the year ahead.
Florida’s Growth Story Continues
Florida continues to stand out nationally thanks to strong migration, wealth inflows, and population growth. Tampa Bay, in particular, benefits from corporate relocations and workforce expansion.
Speakers did note some near-term strain as infrastructure and housing try to keep up with growth, but long-term fundamentals remain strong and supportive of continued confidence in the region’s economy.
Commercial Real Estate Faces Pressure
A significant volume of CRE debt is set to mature through 2029, putting pressure on banks, especially smaller institutions. Modifications and extensions are on the rise, and these “maturity walls” are expected to be a meaningful challenge in the years ahead.
For businesses tied to real estate, construction, or lending, this reinforces the need for proactive planning and risk assessment.
Workforce Investment Is a Competitive Advantage
Mayor Jane Castor emphasized a key point reinforced by the economic data: investing in workforce development is essential for long-term economic success. Tampa’s Transforming Tampa’s Tomorrow initiative highlights how education and upskilling help support sustained growth across industries. Strengthening local talent is not just a social priority, it is a smart economic strategy for the city and businesses alike.
The 2026 Economic Outlook made it clear that while uncertainty remains, especially around national confidence and real estate pressures, Tampa Bay is well positioned for continued expansion.
For business leaders, the message was simple: stay informed, plan strategically, and be ready to seize opportunities as stabilization and renewed momentum take hold in 2026.
*The economic data and forecasts included are based on information presented at the 2026 Tampa Bay Business Journal Economic Outlook, including research and analysis from Fifth Third Bank’s Chief Economist.